Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Did China's growth skip a stage?

The only quote I remember from Jurassic Park is when Dr. Malcom says "All they ever thought about was, "Could they do it?" They never stopped and thought about "Should they do it?" They stood on the shoulders of giants, and so they didn't really earn the knowledge." He was of course referencing the DNA cloning techonolgy. And I would like to pose a similar question about China. Do they really understand the economic development that they now wield? The U.S. and Europe created the Industrial revolution that brought us the modern factory, and all of the luxuries that it can produce. But, since then it has been an arduous process to get where the U.S. is today. Full of depression and recessions, and development fueled by consumption and wars. The point is it took the West along time to get where it is. China on the other hand is catapulting ahead at lightening speed, but they did not really invent any of the techonology that now fuels their economy. Yes, part of the benefit of open markets is rapid development, but "can it be too rapid?" In the coming years China is going to have to tackle it's horrible pollution problem, they are going to have to gradually fix the accounting systems of their businesses, and they are going to have to address the social impacts of a generation brought up under the one child policy. They are also going to have to tackle the U.S. in Asia if they ever want to dominate the region. Can they do this without really providing any innovation to the world? Can they do this by simply transitioning to a consumption centered economy, and buying all of the rest of the world's excess? Will they be able to continue their "peaceful rising" with all of these issues? I don't know.

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